The World Bank has significantly upgraded its economic growth outlook for Uzbekistan, turning the country into one of the strongest performers among developing markets in Europe and Central Asia. The bank now expects Uzbekistan’s GDP to expand by 7.9% in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 6.4% issued in April.
Growth outlook strengthened through 2028
The revised projections are set out in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Artificial Intelligence in Action: Jobs, Firms and Productivity, published on 6 October. The forecast for 2027 has also been raised, from 6.7% to 7.5%. For 2028, the bank expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 7.1%.
According to the report’s comparison of developing economies in Europe and Central Asia, Uzbekistan is expected to rank second by growth rate in 2026. Only Kyrgyzstan is projected to record faster expansion, at 9.6%. In 2027, Uzbekistan is forecast to move into first place among the countries covered, with projected growth of 7.5%.
Domestic demand and infrastructure investment remain key drivers
The World Bank links Uzbekistan’s economic momentum to resilient domestic demand, supported by rising real wages, stronger employment, remittance inflows and continued investment in infrastructure, energy and housing. The institution also highlights the contribution of ongoing structural reforms.
Remittances provide an additional source of support for household spending and investment. During the first half of 2026, transfers to Uzbekistan increased by 13% year on year to a record $9.2 billion for the period. Russia accounted for approximately 70% of the total inflow, leaving the remittance channel both economically important and exposed to developments in a single source market.
For international furniture manufacturers, construction companies, interior and exterior product suppliers, designers and architecture firms, the upgraded outlook points to expanding opportunities in housing, commercial development, infrastructure and energy-related projects. At the same time, the market’s prospects will depend on how effectively structural reforms translate into improved business conditions, and on whether strong domestic demand can be sustained as external risks evolve.
