The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its economic growth outlook for Uzbekistan, pointing to stronger-than-expected momentum in one of Central Asia’s most closely watched markets.
Higher growth expectations
In its October World Economic Outlook, published on October 12, the IMF raised its forecast for Uzbekistan’s economic growth in 2026 from 6.8% to 7.8%. The projection for 2027 was also revised upward, from 6% to 6.5%.
Under the updated estimates, Uzbekistan’s economy could expand slightly faster in 2026 than it did in 2025, when growth reached 7.7%. The October report does not provide a separate explanation for the revised country figures, but the IMF had previously linked Uzbekistan’s resilience to robust domestic demand, sustained investment activity, remittance inflows and favourable gold-price dynamics. The continuation of structural reforms was also identified as a growth driver.
Strong first-half performance and easing inflation
National Committee on Statistics data show that Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 8.5% year on year during the first half of 2026. Its nominal volume reached 1,072.7 trillion soums, underlining the scale of the market’s expansion.
The IMF expects average annual inflation to moderate from 8.8% in 2025 to 6.9% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027. The latest figures are slightly less optimistic than the Fund’s June projections, which stood at 6.8% for 2026 and 5% for 2027.
For international companies in furniture, construction, interior and exterior manufacturing, trade, design and architecture, the combination of upgraded growth expectations, high domestic demand and continued investment activity signals expanding commercial potential in Uzbekistan. At the same time, the still-elevated inflation outlook means that market entrants will need to monitor costs, pricing, consumer purchasing power and financing conditions closely while assessing production, distribution or retail opportunities.
