Uzbekistan’s economic trajectory has gained fresh momentum, with the World Bank revising its GDP growth projections upward in a significant vote of confidence for the Central Asian nation. The institution now anticipates the country’s economy will expand by 6.2% in 2025, marking an upgrade from its previous June forecast of 5.9%. For 2026, growth is expected to reach 6%, maintaining Uzbekistan’s position among the region’s most dynamic economies.
These projections, released in the World Bank’s October 7 report on the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region’s economic outlook, position Uzbekistan firmly within the top five fastest-growing economies across this vast geographical expanse. The upgrade reflects growing recognition of the country’s economic resilience and its ability to navigate global headwinds that have challenged many emerging markets.
Regional leadership in challenging times
Central Asia continues to outpace other ECA sub-regions for the third consecutive year, with the World Bank forecasting 5.9% growth for the sub-region in 2025. This stands in sharp contrast to the overall ECA regional projection of just 2.4%, dragged down primarily by Russia’s economic slowdown. Even as the broader region faces geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and inflationary pressures, Central Asian economies are charting their own course forward.
Uzbekistan finds itself in competitive company among regional performers. Kyrgyzstan leads the pack with projected growth rates of 9.2% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, while Tajikistan is expected to achieve 7.6% and 5.2% respectively. Georgia and Kazakhstan round out the top five, with forecasts of 7% and 5.5% for Georgia, and 5.5% and 4.5% for Kazakhstan over the same period.
The growth dynamics across Central Asia are being fueled by several converging factors. Increased oil extraction in Kazakhstan, rising remittance flows into Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, along with expanding public and private investments across the sub-region, are creating a foundation for sustained economic expansion. While growth is projected to moderate to 5% across Central Asia in 2026, these economies will still maintain their leadership position among all ECA countries, outperforming Central and Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, the Western Balkans, Russia, and Turkey.
Strategic sectors driving transformation
The World Bank report highlights several priority development areas shaping Uzbekistan’s economic future. The chemical industry stands out as a key sector, where success hinges on production modernization, separating regulatory and control functions from commercial activities, and gradually phasing out subsidies, price restrictions, and export controls on chemical products. Enhanced competitiveness and energy efficiency in this sector could unlock new opportunities for industrial development and exports.
The ICT services sphere represents another growth frontier, reflecting the country’s push toward digital transformation and its ambitions to become a regional technology hub. These strategic priorities signal Uzbekistan’s determination to diversify its economic base beyond traditional sectors and position itself for long-term sustainable growth.
What this means for international business
For international companies in furniture manufacturing, construction, and interior design sectors, these upgraded growth projections translate into tangible market opportunities. A 6%-plus annual GDP expansion typically drives increased consumer purchasing power, accelerating demand for quality furniture, home improvement products, and construction materials. The focus on chemical industry modernization particularly benefits suppliers of specialized construction chemicals, coatings, and advanced materials. Meanwhile, the emphasis on private and public investment growth suggests a robust pipeline of commercial and residential construction projects, creating sustained demand for building materials, architectural services, and interior design solutions. Companies evaluating market entry or expansion strategies can view these World Bank projections as validation of Uzbekistan’s strengthening position as a regional economic anchor, offering stability and growth potential that increasingly stands out in a challenging global landscape.
