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Saturday, June 15, 2024
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Macroregional Context




ADB forecasts 5.5% economic growth for Uzbekistan in 2024

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has released its latest economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region, predicting a modest slowdown in Uzbekistan’s economic growth to 5.5% in 2024. The report, unveiled on April 11, 2024, cites several factors influencing this deceleration, including regulated price increases that are expected to dampen real household incomes and consumer demand.

Economic Dynamics and Sectoral Impacts: The ADB highlights specific sectors where growth is anticipated to slow, including in services. This sector are likely to be affected by the regulated price increases, which are set to curb the growth of real domestic demand. Despite these challenges, the bank projects a slight uptick in economic performance for 2025, with GDP growth forecasted at 5.6%, spurred by anticipated advances in the industrial sector.

Inflation and Policy Measures: Inflation remains a significant concern, with the ADB expecting it to hold steady at 10% in 2024, unchanged from 2023. The report attributes this to ongoing structural reforms, particularly in the energy sector, which are likely to result in higher regulated prices. However, the ADB notes that continued tightening of monetary policy could help mitigate inflationary pressures slightly, with an expected decrease to 9.5% in 2025.

Looking Ahead: The report also reflects on the economic acceleration observed last year, driven by growth in industry, and supported by tight monetary policy alongside tax breaks on staple foods. These measures have helped control inflation to some extent but are challenged by structural adjustments in pricing regulations.

Conclusion: As Uzbekistan navigates through these economic adjustments, the focus remains on balancing growth with inflation control. The ADB’s report serves as a crucial indicator for policymakers, investors, and businesses, suggesting cautious optimism for 2025 with the necessary reforms and economic strategies in place.

Implications for Business and Industry: The forecasted economic slowdown and high inflation rate may prompt businesses, particularly in the furniture industry, to reassess their strategies. Companies might need to explore cost-effective production methods and consider adjusting their pricing strategies to maintain competitiveness. The furniture industry, which relies significantly on disposable household income, will need to innovate in product offerings and potentially seek markets outside the most affected sectors, such as agriculture and services. Additionally, firms should monitor the industrial growth in 2025 as it could present new opportunities for business expansion and collaboration.

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