Tuesday, April 16, 2024
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Macroregional Context




World Bank improved its forecast for Uzbekistan’s GDP growth

According to a report on the economy of Europe and Central Asia published on October 5th, the World Bank has improved its forecast for Uzbekistan’s economic growth in the current and next year. The country’s GDP growth is expected to reach 5.5% in 2023 (+0.4 percentage points compared to the June forecast) and may gradually accelerate in the medium term, reaching 5.6% (+0.2 percentage points) and 5.8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

The consumption growth rate is expected to decline in 2023 due to the decreasing volume of money transfers from Russia. Import growth is expected to accelerate this year, and its volumes will continue to grow in the medium term to maintain the pace of economic modernization.

According to the forecast, the inflation rate will be 10.2% in 2023 (11.4% in 2022), 10% in 2024, and 9.9% in 20241.

Overall, Central Asian countries are expected to experience an acceleration in growth to 4.8% this year, and the average growth rate in 2024 and 2025 is forecasted to be 4.7%, assuming that inflation slows down.

Trade volume growth, increased cash inflows, and the return of citizens continued to support economic activity in several countries, primarily in Central Asian and South Caucasus states. Armenia, Georgia, and Tajikistan remain the leaders in economic growth in this region for the second year in a row.

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