Uzbekistan has sharply upgraded its official medium-term outlook, signalling a new phase of accelerated growth and investment appetite in Central Asia’s largest consumer market. The Ministry of Economy and Finance has raised the forecast for real GDP growth in the coming year from 6.6 to 8.1 percent within the updated Fiscal Strategy for the period up to 2029, while targeting inflation at 6.5 percent and unemployment at 4.5 percent.
If this scenario materialises, economic growth will outpace last year’s 7.7 percent and become one of the strongest performances in recent years. Nominal GDP is projected to reach about 2.183 quadrillion soums (around 180 billion dollars), more than 200 trillion soums above the figure embedded in the current state budget law.
Growth forecast sharply upgraded
The revision is substantial: the official forecast for the coming year has been increased by 1.5 percentage points compared with the baseline approved in the budget at the start of the year. The authorities are leaning on stronger-than-expected performance — real GDP expanded by 7.7 percent last year against an initial forecast of 6.6 percent, and growth in the first quarter of this year reached 8.7 percent year-on-year.
The new Fiscal Strategy for 2027–2029 reflects a more confident trajectory, with authorities expecting growth to remain close to or above 7 percent in the medium term. This positions Uzbekistan among the fastest-growing economies in Central Asia and raises the bar for what investors can expect from demand dynamics in key urban and industrial centres.
Sectoral drivers: services, industry and construction
The government expects market services to become the main engine of the economy in the coming year, with projected expansion of about 16.6 percent versus an earlier forecast near 14.5 percent. This broad category includes transport and logistics, tourism and hospitality, retail, business services and digital platforms — sectors that directly shape demand for commercial real estate, fit-out, and urban infrastructure.
Industrial output is now forecast to grow by around 8 percent instead of 6.4 percent, underscoring expectations of stronger manufacturing activity and higher capacity utilisation. For international suppliers of machinery, building systems, industrial furnishings and technical interiors, this signals deeper localisation and more projects in industrial zones and special economic areas across the country.
The construction sector is set for an even more dynamic trajectory: the forecast has been upgraded to roughly 12.4 percent growth from 10.2 percent. This reflects continued emphasis on housing programmes, urban redevelopment, commercial property, logistics terminals and tourism-related infrastructure. For construction and interior players, this means a sustained pipeline of projects requiring structural materials, architectural solutions, finishing materials, furniture, lighting and other components of modern built environments.
Budget revenues and state investment capacity
Stronger macro expectations have prompted the authorities to revise fiscal parameters as well. Projected revenues of the consolidated budget for the coming year have been raised from about 515.8 trillion to 589.7 trillion soums. This wider fiscal space increases the government’s capacity to fund infrastructure, social housing, transport corridors and urban utilities — all of which create downstream demand for construction services, engineering, and related manufacturing.
For foreign investors, a larger and more predictable public investment programme tends to mean a more robust project pipeline, especially where the state co-invests in industrial parks, logistics hubs, tourism clusters and large social infrastructure through public–private partnerships. Such projects often require international expertise in design, planning, materials, and turnkey interior and exterior solutions.
Government optimism versus international forecasts
Uzbekistan’s new 8.1 percent growth forecast is notably more optimistic than the projections of major international financial institutions. The Asian Development Bank expects economic growth of around 6.7 percent, the International Monetary Fund estimates about 6.8 percent, and the World Bank’s latest outlook points to roughly 6.4 percent. All three still rank Uzbekistan among the fastest-growing economies of the region, but their scenarios are more conservative than the national baseline.
The divergence reflects different assumptions about the pace of reforms, the strength of private investment, the impact of global demand, and the speed at which structural bottlenecks — including energy shortages and transport constraints — can be relieved. While external institutions highlight robust domestic demand, strong remittances and continued reforms, they also point to risks from global volatility, commodity price swings and the need to carefully manage inflation and public debt.
The authorities, in turn, are betting on accelerated modernisation of infrastructure, an active privatisation agenda, expansion of special industrial and economic zones and improvements to the business climate. These factors, if implemented on schedule, can lift growth closer to the upper end of the forecast range, but they also require sustained regulatory discipline and predictable policy for private investors.
Inflation, employment and the financing environment
The updated Fiscal Strategy lowers the inflation forecast for the coming year from 7 to 6.5 percent, suggesting confidence that price pressures can be gradually tamed, even amid ongoing tariff adjustments and imported cost shocks. A smoother disinflation path would, over time, allow for a more accommodating monetary stance, lowering local borrowing costs and improving the economics of long-horizon investment in real estate, industrial assets and hospitality projects.
The unemployment forecast of 4.5 percent indicates a relatively tight labour market. For businesses, this brings both challenges and opportunities: wage costs are likely to rise, but a young and expanding middle class will underpin demand for housing, retail space, hotels, restaurants and modern public spaces. This translates into sustained consumption of furnishings, home appliances, decorative materials and design services.
In parallel, Uzbekistan continues to streamline regulations, digitalise public services and expand support tools for entrepreneurs, including preferential lending and industrial infrastructure. For foreign partners, this evolving framework is gradually simplifying market entry, though careful attention to local rules, tax regimes and technical standards remains essential.
Why this matters for international construction and interior businesses
For international companies in furniture, construction materials, interiors, architecture and design, Uzbekistan’s upgraded growth scenario sends a clear signal: the market is on track to become significantly larger, more urban and more service-oriented over the next few years. Rapid expansion in construction and services implies a wave of residential complexes, office towers, hotels, shopping centres, logistics parks and public facilities that will all require modern fit-out, furnishings, equipment and design solutions.
Higher budget revenues and an active state role in infrastructure can translate into sizeable tenders where foreign engineering and design expertise is valued, while dynamic private developers will be seeking differentiated concepts and quality interior and exterior products to stand out in a more competitive real estate market. At the same time, more moderate inflation and a reform-oriented policy mix improve the investment climate, expanding opportunities for localised production of furniture, building materials and home appliances geared not only to Uzbekistan but to the wider Central Asian region.
For investors and exporters willing to take a medium-term view and navigate the still-evolving regulatory landscape, Uzbekistan’s revised growth path offers a compelling combination of scale, momentum and diversification potential in the heart of Central Asia.
